A New Centrism Is Rising in Washington (2024)

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A New Centrism Is Rising in Washington (1)

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Call it neopopulism: a bipartisan attitude that mistrusts the free-market ethos instead of embracing it.

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By David Leonhardt

David Leonhardt, a senior writer at The Times, has been based in Washington since 2008.

It may be the most discussed fact about American politics today: The country is deeply polarized. The Republican Party has moved to the right by many measures, and the Democratic Party has moved to the left. Each party sees the other as an existential threat. One consequence of this polarization, politicians and pundits often say, is gridlock in Washington.

But in a country that is supposed to have a gridlocked federal government, the past four years are hard to explain. These years have been arguably the most productive period of Washington bipartisanship in decades.

During the Covid pandemic, Democrats and Republicans in Congress came together to pass emergency responses. Under President Biden, bipartisan majorities have passed major laws on infrastructure and semiconductor chips, as well as laws on veterans’ health, gun violence, the Postal Service, the aviation system, same-sex marriage, anti-Asian hate crimes and the electoral process. On trade, the Biden administration has kept some of the Trump administration’s signature policies and even expanded them.

The trend has continued over the past month, first with the passage of a bipartisan bill to aid Ukraine and other allies and to force a sale of TikTok by its Chinese owner. After the bill’s passage, far-right House Republicans tried to oust Speaker Mike Johnson because he did not block it — and House Democrats voted to save Johnson’s job. There is no precedent for House members of one party to rescue a speaker from the other. Last week, the House advanced another bipartisan bill, on disaster relief, using a rare procedural technique to get around party-line votes.

This flurry of bipartisanship may be surprising, but it is not an accident. It has depended on the emergence of a new form of American centrism.

The very notion of centrism is anathema to many progressives and conservatives, conjuring a mushy moderation. But the new centrism is not always so moderate. Forcing the sale of a popular social app is not exactly timid, nor is confronting China and Russia. The bills to rebuild American infrastructure and strengthen the domestic semiconductor industry are ambitious economic policies.

Party breakdown on some major votes during Biden's presidency

A chart shows congressional votes by party for several major bills that have had bipartisan support during Biden’s presidency in the House and Senate. These include blocking the motion to remove Mike Johnson as speaker, the foreign aid and forced TikTok sale package, the infrastructure bill and the CHIPS and Science Act.

A New Centrism Is Rising in Washington (3)

House

Block motion to remove Mike Johnson

as speaker

May 8, 2024

163 Dem.

196 Rep.

Support

Oppose

32

11

Foreign aid bills and forced TikTok sale April 20, 2024

Ukraine aid

210

101

Support

Oppose

112

Israel aid

173

193

Support

37

21

Oppose

Taiwan aid

Support

207

178

34

Oppose

TikTok sale

Support

174

186

Oppose

33

25

SENATE

Infrastructure bill Aug. 10, 2021

Support

19 Rep., 2 Ind.

48

30

Oppose

CHIPS and Science Act July 27, 2022

46

17 Rep., 1 Ind.

Support

32

1 Ind.

Oppose

A New Centrism Is Rising in Washington (4)

House

Block motion to remove Mike Johnson as speaker May 8, 2024

Support

163 Democrats

196 Republicans

Oppose

32

11

Foreign aid bills and forced TikTok sale April 20, 2024

Support

210

101

Ukraine aid

Oppose

112

Support

Israel aid

173

193

Oppose

37

21

Support

207

178

Taiwan aid

34

Oppose

Support

TikTok Sale

174

186

Oppose

33

25

SENATE

Infrastructure bill Aug. 10, 2021

Support

19

2 Independents

48

Oppose

30

CHIPS and Science Act July 27, 2022

Support

46

17

1 Ind.

Oppose

32

1 Ind.

Social and economic views of registered voters

Each dot is one registered voter in a survey, plotted by their social and economic views.

A chart plots 1,020 registered voters, who responded to a survey by Echelon Insights in June 2023, on a matrix of social and economic views. Each voter is represented by one dot, color-coded by who they voted for in the 2020 presidential election. Most voters who voted for Trump are both socially and fiscally conservative; most who voted for Biden are social and fiscally liberal. Vote patterns in the other two quadrants are more mixed.

A New Centrism Is Rising in Washington (5)

Trump

Other candidate

unsure, or didn’t vote

2020 vote

Biden

More

socially

conservative

More

socially

liberal

More fiscally

liberal

More fiscally

conservative

A New Centrism Is Rising in Washington (6)

Trump

Other candidate, unsure or didn’t vote

Biden

2020 vote

More

socially

conservative

More

socially

liberal

More fiscally conservative

More fiscally liberal

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